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The reason to be optimistic about DC crime in 2024 is that crime reports are way down all over America except for DC. See https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-in-2023-murder-plummeted-violent Right now, we are an outlier. Most likely, the national trend will catch up with us, that is, whatever is causing crime to fall everywhere else will finally cause it to fall in DC.

Your "crime facts," the numbers you publish, are excellent. But your speculations about cause-and-effect are easily refuted -- those guesses are not "facts." Otherwise, I've very much appreciated this blog.

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