We need the DC Govt to do a strategic assessments of its policy "interventions" in gun violence and how they stack up against what is actually needed. Assess the services actually provided (incentives and disincentives communicated through various departments, agencies, etc. at every interaction with the future/current suspect) vs. what what is needed (i.e., shown to be effective scientifically) at every stage: pre-crime, crime, post-crime, post-release, etc. The DC Gun Violence Strategic Plan from 2022 is a great start and has many great science-based recommendations. How do our ACTUAL SERVICES compare to those recommendations? How can we structure our policy reforms to close the gaps?
You acknowledge early on that most people carry guns out of a perceived sense of insecurity and that "the trauma of being shot at or having friends or family members killed then makes some kids more at risk of engaging in gun violence themselves. This perpetuates gun violence intergenerationally in DC’s poorest neighborhoods." And then spend the next 2000 words on why we should double down on criminalizing gun possession as the primary way to reducing gun violence and a passing mention on prevention efforts.
Weapons prosecution have taken up increasingly larger share of prosecutions and convictions in DC over the past decade even when overall number of prosecutions has gone down. MPD has also recovered more guns every year than the previous year during the same period. At the same time, the closure rates for shootings and homicides has plummeted. This myopic focus on gun carrying rather than the more complex takedowns & homicides is not working. It's just a plan to arrest and prosecute as many black kids in DC as possible who pick up a gun because they don't feel safe. Because according to you everyone who decides to carry a gun, a right enshrined in the US Constitution, is a criminal even if it's about survival.
Where I disagree with you is that you're citing MPD making more gun recoveries as proof that enforcement hasn't worked and I believe that the USAO declining, dropping and pleading down those cases such that each firearm arrest is now half as likely to result in a felony conviction more than outweighs the increase in firearm recoveries. Guns are so easy to acquire in DC that gun seizures are almost meaningless as a policy objective; enforcement means prosecution and convictions which have both been decreased by the USAO relative to 2018 rates.
I've written a lot about how MPD could increase homicide/shooting clearance rates and those are a higher priority than gun possession. But MPD is making those arrests while out on patrol and those suspects are in fact carrying illegal guns...choosing not to prosecute those offenses simply undermines the deterrent value of DC's gun laws. The USAO certainly didn't use their added capacity from declining and dropping more cases to dramatically scale up those more complex takedowns; we simply got less enforcement across the board. And no, not everyone who decides to carry a gun is a criminal; just those that don't follow the law for how to legally obtain one which is what we're discussing in this post.
I am not talking about gun seizures alone. MPD has almost doubled the number of gun possession arrest between 2018 and 2024. The majority of them are for CPWL, which means that most people arrested do not have a felony record or history of violence. So even though the USAO has prosecuted more gun cases in 2024 than in 2018 by raw numbers, the rate of prosecution is down.
I find MPD dedicating a significant portion of its force to street stops and gun recoveries at the expense of making arrests for shootings and homicides to have a stronger association with increased violence than how many people we're saddling with felony records for gun possession.
I recognize that you have written about clearance rates but it's concerning that your overt focus on making gun possession a proxy for gun violence might lead to policy decisions to imprison more black people without addressing why violence is happening in the first place.
"Because according to you everyone who decides to carry a gun, a right enshrined in the US Constitution, is a criminal even if it's about survival."
This is frankly BS since carrying a gun is not illegal unless you purchase it illegally, have lost the right to carry due to prior convictions or fail to meet some other basic condition. It's little different from driving a vehicle, which is usually legal but could be illegal if you have DUIs, have failed to pass your drivers test or are attempting to drive a tank.
If I take your point of view seriously, a natural next step would be to spread awareness on legal gun possession to young males without prior felonies. I'm not sure if that would lower violence, but I suppose it might avoid a certain number of arrests for first-time gun possession. But on the other hand if you think we should look away when 15 year olds or people with prior shooting charges are found with guns, then what is the point of gun control laws anyway?
The best reporting and analysis on Substack that I'm aware of.
Thank you!
It seems like its time for y’all to come back and shine a light
Strongly agree!!!
Greetings! I've learned so much from your newsletter updates, and wanted to flag an event several ANCs have organized with some local partners about the need for a citywide gun violence reduction strategy. If it feels appropriate, we'd be grateful if you shared it with your readers: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/dc-community-public-safety-forum-on-gun-violence-reduction-strategies-tickets-1043166126967?aff=oddtdtcreator&keep_tld=1
We need the DC Govt to do a strategic assessments of its policy "interventions" in gun violence and how they stack up against what is actually needed. Assess the services actually provided (incentives and disincentives communicated through various departments, agencies, etc. at every interaction with the future/current suspect) vs. what what is needed (i.e., shown to be effective scientifically) at every stage: pre-crime, crime, post-crime, post-release, etc. The DC Gun Violence Strategic Plan from 2022 is a great start and has many great science-based recommendations. How do our ACTUAL SERVICES compare to those recommendations? How can we structure our policy reforms to close the gaps?
You acknowledge early on that most people carry guns out of a perceived sense of insecurity and that "the trauma of being shot at or having friends or family members killed then makes some kids more at risk of engaging in gun violence themselves. This perpetuates gun violence intergenerationally in DC’s poorest neighborhoods." And then spend the next 2000 words on why we should double down on criminalizing gun possession as the primary way to reducing gun violence and a passing mention on prevention efforts.
Weapons prosecution have taken up increasingly larger share of prosecutions and convictions in DC over the past decade even when overall number of prosecutions has gone down. MPD has also recovered more guns every year than the previous year during the same period. At the same time, the closure rates for shootings and homicides has plummeted. This myopic focus on gun carrying rather than the more complex takedowns & homicides is not working. It's just a plan to arrest and prosecute as many black kids in DC as possible who pick up a gun because they don't feel safe. Because according to you everyone who decides to carry a gun, a right enshrined in the US Constitution, is a criminal even if it's about survival.
Where I disagree with you is that you're citing MPD making more gun recoveries as proof that enforcement hasn't worked and I believe that the USAO declining, dropping and pleading down those cases such that each firearm arrest is now half as likely to result in a felony conviction more than outweighs the increase in firearm recoveries. Guns are so easy to acquire in DC that gun seizures are almost meaningless as a policy objective; enforcement means prosecution and convictions which have both been decreased by the USAO relative to 2018 rates.
I've written a lot about how MPD could increase homicide/shooting clearance rates and those are a higher priority than gun possession. But MPD is making those arrests while out on patrol and those suspects are in fact carrying illegal guns...choosing not to prosecute those offenses simply undermines the deterrent value of DC's gun laws. The USAO certainly didn't use their added capacity from declining and dropping more cases to dramatically scale up those more complex takedowns; we simply got less enforcement across the board. And no, not everyone who decides to carry a gun is a criminal; just those that don't follow the law for how to legally obtain one which is what we're discussing in this post.
I am not talking about gun seizures alone. MPD has almost doubled the number of gun possession arrest between 2018 and 2024. The majority of them are for CPWL, which means that most people arrested do not have a felony record or history of violence. So even though the USAO has prosecuted more gun cases in 2024 than in 2018 by raw numbers, the rate of prosecution is down.
I find MPD dedicating a significant portion of its force to street stops and gun recoveries at the expense of making arrests for shootings and homicides to have a stronger association with increased violence than how many people we're saddling with felony records for gun possession.
I recognize that you have written about clearance rates but it's concerning that your overt focus on making gun possession a proxy for gun violence might lead to policy decisions to imprison more black people without addressing why violence is happening in the first place.
For e.g. Your suggestion that buy and busts are a good approach for takedowns suggests that you're either uninformed or ignoring how they are utilized in practice. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/nyregion/undercover-officers-ask-addicts-to-buy-drugs-snaring-them-but-not-dealers.html
ONSE and OGVP are still without a permanent director.
"Because according to you everyone who decides to carry a gun, a right enshrined in the US Constitution, is a criminal even if it's about survival."
This is frankly BS since carrying a gun is not illegal unless you purchase it illegally, have lost the right to carry due to prior convictions or fail to meet some other basic condition. It's little different from driving a vehicle, which is usually legal but could be illegal if you have DUIs, have failed to pass your drivers test or are attempting to drive a tank.
If I take your point of view seriously, a natural next step would be to spread awareness on legal gun possession to young males without prior felonies. I'm not sure if that would lower violence, but I suppose it might avoid a certain number of arrests for first-time gun possession. But on the other hand if you think we should look away when 15 year olds or people with prior shooting charges are found with guns, then what is the point of gun control laws anyway?