MPD: "It is clear that simply arresting these individuals is an insufficient lever to change behavior"

Key points from MPD's performance oversight hearing

The Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) is one of the largest and most important agencies in DC’s government. As a result the oversight process for MPD is quite extensive and today’s post will highlight some of the key information that has come out through oversight. There are some positive signs but MPD admittedly continues to face challenges like recruitment, retention and the “downstream elements in the criminal justice ecosystem.”

MPD Chief Pamela Smith’s prepared testimony is a good high level review of crime in DC over the last year and MPD’s response. The included graph for robberies really helps show how 2023 was not equally bad all year; we had a sharp spike in violent crime in the Spring and Summer followed by a significant (relative) decrease in the Fall and Winter:

“Looking back, it is easy to see the beginnings of the crime increases in early 2023. Homicides were spiking by February, and carjackings and robberies began increasing in March. The increase in carjackings and robbery peaked in June, with more than twice as many robberies and three times as many carjackings reported than in June 2022. In July, this started to turn around.”

This 2023 narrative may sound familiar because it has a lot of similarities with this post:

Bouncing back from rock bottom

One key data point related to how conversion switches (devices that turn a semi-automatic firearm into a fully-automatic machine gun equivalent) have contributed to DC’s rising homicide rate:

• One key driver of the homicide rate is that shootings got more lethal. While from 2020-2022 the shooting fatality rate was 19.6%, in 2023 that rose to 23.9%. That 4.3% increase meant an additional 82 homicides in 2023 (out of 274 total).

• “One factor driving the higher lethality of shootings is the increase in the use of conversion switches, which modify handguns from semiautomatic to fully automatic. The number that MPD recovered tripled in just two years, from 66 in 2021 to 195 in 2023.”

When criminals can fire more rounds at their targets the chances that they fatally wound someone (either the target or a bystander) increase significantly. These illegal devices represent a technological change that increased DC’s homicide rate independent of most of the policy levers our political system likes to argue about. But one critical failure is that the United States Attorney’s Office (USAO) has been hesitant to prosecute suspects who use these devices under the very strict Federal laws that prohibit them. Legally these conversion devices are treated like machine guns and Federal law already calls for incredibly long sentences for people convicted of possessing them. Instead you see cases like this one where the USAO treated it like any other pistol, only filed local charges and then offered a plea bargain for “Attempted Carrying a Pistol Without a License” that resulted in the defendant only spending 60 days in jail:

This case was hardly unique. Here’s another suspect with a de-facto machine gun where it appears the USAO didn’t press any charges at all so the DC Attorney General (OAG) pressed what minor charges they could:

Instead of prosecuting these cases in District Court under existing Federal laws (to maximize the “incapacitation” of the sentence), USA Graves has made multiple media appearances where he bemoaned the lack of similar local laws to prosecute these cases in DC Superior Court. While it appears that the Secure DC Act will pass with enhanced penalties for using these devices; there are still likely to be many suspects who will be back on the street much sooner because the USAO prioritized local lobbying over enforcing Federal laws to fight gun violence in DC.

Returning to Chief Smith’s testimony, she also noted the link between motor vehicle theft and violent crime: “Comparing the first six months since my appointment to the six months before it, motor vehicle theft – which have helped to fuel violent crime – is down 15 percent, carjackings are down 7 percent, and assaults with a dangerous weapon are down 10 percent.” Motor vehicle theft spiking in late 2022-early 2023 seems to have helped drive the violent crime spike in Spring-Summer 2023. Likewise the recent reduction in motor vehicle theft seems to be helping tamp down violent crime. Efforts to distribute tracking devices, install dash cameras and educate drivers may feel too “defensive” but they are a valid part of DC’s crime fighting strategy. The need to reign in motor vehicle theft is also why it’s so critical that we address the apparent breakdown between MPD and the USAO on prosecuting the use of stolen cars or “Unauthorized Use of a Vehicle” (UUV). UUV is often what police can prove when there is little or no evidence that a specific suspect stole the car. However we see instances where MPD stops someone driving a stolen car, the vehicle’s owner confirms the suspect did not have permission to use it, MPD arrests the suspect for UUV but the USAO doesn’t prosecute. In this case the OAG pressed what minor traffic charges they are authorized to prosecute:

We’ve mentioned this problem in a previous post and in recent weeks the USAO’s apparent prosecution rate for UUV arrests has decreased further:

This is a material number of arrests by MPD and the incredibly low prosecution rate suggests a serious disconnect between MPD and the USAO. We don’t know if MPD is making mistakes or if there is a gap in the law preventing prosecution but hopefully DC’s leaders can get MPD and the USAO to work out something more productive than ever more no-papered arrests.

We also got another data point that MPD is getting more efficient: “In 2023, the Department responded 15 seconds faster to Priority 1 calls for service. This 4 percent decrease happened despite a 9 percent increase in calls for service and 4 percent decrease in sworn staffing.” Recall that MPD also began making more arrests-per-officer in the 2nd half of 2023 (after Chief Smith’s appointment) and these data points begin to paint a picture of MPD making some operational improvements last year. While MPD did shrink last year, it does appear that over the last several months MPD staffing has stabilized, with new hires keeping up with resignations and retirements:

In MPD’s oversight responses (84 pages of answers and 163 pages of attachments) they credit an expanded recruiting team with helping stabilize staffing levels:

• MPD established a sworn recruiting unit of 6 officers because “the best people to talk about being officers at MPD are fellow officers.” MPD reports that these officers have done 72 events in Q4 2023 which has generated more candidates submitting interest cards and scheduling for an MPD “prospect day.” This appears to be another case of Chief Smith’s team shaking up operations after a challenging period where the Recruiting Department went through 4 different leaders in 4 years.

• MPD also expanded civilian hiring, including a plan to “Hire six intelligence analysts to help expand MPD’s capacity to conduct robust analysis around violent crime, repeat violent offenders, and emerging trends and patterns. These professionals would directly support detectives with investigations and specialized units and patrol in deploying assets more strategically.” “Civilian analysts can alleviate detective workload by reviewing and analyzing data sources.” They have hired 5 of the 6 positions so far.

• MPD spent $281K of the $500K budgeted for the Short- and Long-Term Housing Assistance programs aimed at helping new recruits. This is another indicator that more money isn’t the bottleneck for growing MPD; it’s tackling the many other barriers that both hinder recruitment and hurt retention:

Getting serious about recruiting more police

While MPD is doing what it can to improve recruitment, it’s important to remember that MPD’s problems are part of a larger issue. When asked to outline the “primary issues” in each agency the Deputy Mayor for Public Safety and Justice also identified recruitment and/or retention of staff as a primary issue for the Department of Corrections (DOC), the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and the Office of Unified Communications (OUC). To this list I would add that the Department of Forensic Sciences (DFS) also has staffing challenges. DC and many other cities have a general labor shortage and insufficient talent pipelines for many critical roles.

As part of the oversight process we get to see a demographic breakdown of MPD’s staff. MPD is a very large organization so unsurprisingly its overall demographics (sworn and civilian) have been pretty stable year-over-year. As of January 22, 2024 the racial/ethnic breakdown was 55% Black, 30% White, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian & Pacific Islander. In terms of gender MPD’s workforce was 70% male and 30% female. While many people have a stereotype of police officers as being overwhelmingly white, male Republicans the demographic reality in MPD is quite different. Most bureaus are relatively close to the Department-wide averages but there are a few outliers:

• The Homeland Security Bureau is plurality White (44%) and a bit more male (73%)

• The Technical and Analytical Services Bureau is 75% Black and 43% female

As in past years the vast majority (83%) of MPD officers live outside DC while half of civilian staff live in DC.

MPD provided some new detail on how and where officers are deployed. They reported the yearly average number of officers assigned to “Scout Cars,” “Bicycle/Scooter/Other Vehicle” and “On Foot” by police district.

• The vast majority of officers are assigned to Scout Cars and only 3 of 7 police districts had any officers on foot. Chief Smith said in her testimony “I have asked each district commander to expand their foot patrols” and in the oversight responses they said “the Department will be expanding its commitment to interacting with our community members on the streets in our neighborhoods by focusing on foot beats.”

• This also helps show how many officers are deployed to a police district rather than simply assigned to a district; which allows us to compare MPD’s resource allocations vs. crime and arrest rates.

• When we compare the share of all crimes, violent crimes and adult arrests we see that police districts 6D, 3D, 5D and 7D are all very busy. However 3D and 6D have proportionally fewer officers while 2D (DC’s wealthiest police district) and 4D have proportionally more officers.

  • In the case of 3D they have 11% of deployed officers, 19.5% of all crimes, 15.5% of violent crimes and 13.3% of adult arrests.

Thankfully the Council staff did ask MPD how they “ensure that staffing correlates with the number of crimes and arrests in PSAs” but unfortunately the short answer is that MPD does not do that. MPD’s position is “While there are on average fewer than 5,000 DC Code Index violent crimes (homicide, sex abuse, assault with a dangerous weapon, and robbery) per year, MPD responds to more than 500,000 calls for service each year. Patrol officers spend more time on calls for service than on violent crimes, so that has a more significant role in driving deployment.”

Obviously calls for service are an important part of MPD’s duties and sometimes a prompt response may prevent a crime from taking place. However, every year the vast majority of MPD’s calls for service are Priority 2 (“Calls that do not pose an immediate threat to the safety of any person.”) or Priority 3 (“All other calls (e.g., traffic complaints, crash reports).”) It is quite telling that non-threatening and routine calls have “a more significant role in driving deployment” than fighting the violent crime that is a top priority for many Washingtonians. This mismatch is compounded by the fact that MPD knows that calls for service undercount the need in disadvantaged communities. MPD’s own report stated:

“Many community members said they felt their neighborhood was being policed inequitably, and some residents have stopped calling MPD since they anticipate the response would be inadequate. One resident described how MPD only drives by when called and often after a long wait, which allows suspects to hide and resume their criminal activity once MPD leaves. But 911 call volume influences where MPD chooses to spend its proactive patrol time, so when 911 call volume does not reflect the rate of crime and public disorder, a community is unlikely to receive the level of police engagement needed for residents to feel safe or to have trust and confidence in their police department.”

It’s good that MPD stated their position on resource allocation on the record. Policymakers can evaluate if its delivering the results we want or should be tweaked as part of the long-delayed MPD staffing audit.

Chief Smith’s testimony and the MPD oversight responses discussed a number of different tactics that MPD is employing to fight crime:

• MPD gave a fascinating answer to a direct question about the use of Focused Deterrence (an approach that has been successful in other cities): “Focused deterrence has been tried in the District over the years in many different formats, from Project Safe Neighborhood in the early 2000s, to the longstanding GunStat work, through to the current effort, the Drivers of Gun Violence lists developed by David Mohammed.” “With focused deterrence, it is important to keep recognize that MPD is only one agency of the many. It is clear that simply arresting these individuals is an insufficient lever to change behavior. We will continue to work to enhance effective collaboration with other agencies to support strategies to reduce violent crime, and we urge the Council to continue to examine downstream elements in the criminal justice ecosystem.”

  • This is as close to throwing the USAO, OAG, Courts, PSA, BOP and CSOSA under the bus that MPD will do on the record. But it does echo former Chief Contee’s remark “I can promise you, it’s not MPD holding the bag on this” in response to the USAO only prosecuting 33% of MPD’s arrests in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022. As we saw with DC’s homicide and shooting suspects, who would be the kind of people a Focused Deterrence program would engage, they tend to have a lot of arrests but very few serious convictions. Focused Deterrence requires prosecution in order to work so it’s not surprising that MPD is asking the Council to “continue to examine the downstream elements” like the USAO.

• Multiagency Nightlife Task Force: “The deployment of partnering agencies on Fridays and Saturday nights allows MPD to focus solely on crime prevention and apprehensions. Officers are freed up to patrol the corridor during nightlife hours, interrupting fights and disputes before they escalate to increased violence.” This task force operates in H Street NE, U Street NW and Dupont. MPD specifically cited progress on U Street (“The U Street Corridor is safer”) and referenced low levels of crime in all of the “nightlife area during the times that the taskforce is active.”

• Getting out into the community: Weekly community walks in each Police District that MPD says help improve public perceptions and cross-agency collaboration: “For instance, in PSA 507, concerns about low lighting in the Rosedale neighborhood led to collaborative efforts, resulting in the installation of new state-of-the-art lighting to deter criminal activities.” “Many community members have asked that officers get out of their cars more, and Chief Smith agree that foot patrols expand opportunities for positive and productive encounters with community members.”

• One tactic that is very encouraging to see is this 1 line blurb about the IRS: “The IRS has recently partnered and collaborated with MPD on long-term conspiracy cases that will result in multiple federal indictments.”

  • Maryland's US Attorney used these types of cases to target violent criminals. Essentially “if his office can't lock up violent offenders for those crimes, there's a good chance his office can prosecute them for pandemic fraud. Barron [Maryland’s US Attorney] said the bottom line is to get violent criminals off the streets by any legal means necessary.”

• MPD also touted increased use of technology to solve crimes. MPD acquired Cellebrite Pathfinder for $700K. This tool “assists detectives in uncovering probable leads or associations based on data returned from cell phone warrants. The software analyzes devices to uncover and link data, investigate new leads, connect data, and identify anomalies to highlight the most meaningful evidence to accelerate the investigation.” They also Increased the number of CCTV recordings retrieved for investigations from 4,873 to 6,017 (+23%).

  • Since MPD is unable to simply create more officers or detectives quickly, making better use of technology (even at a financial cost) is one of the best ways to increase MPD’s effectiveness in the short term. Hopefully the soon-to-be-launched Real Time Crime Center (RTCC) will also help.

In contrast to some of the tough-on-crime rhetoric of DC politicians, MPD does recognize the role of properly utilized diversion and rehabilitation programs for some juvenile suspects: “A key aspect of this initiative is the MPD's emphasis on diversion programs and discretionary practices over arrests, when appropriate, to prioritize rehabilitative and supportive approaches for juveniles. Furthermore, the MPD maintains an ongoing partnership with the OAG in criminal investigations and prosecutions. This partnership extends from pre-arrest collaboration through the OAG Hotline to the post-arrest papering process, ensuring open communication throughout the prosecution process.”

• Obviously the phrase “when appropriate” is the key; it’s not a blanket approach of diverting or not diverting cases. Note also that the OAG Hotline is involved in the pre-arrest process for juvenile arrests. We’ll cover this in more detail in a future OAG post but it’s important to remember that the OAG is filtering out some arrests from even happening and then filtering out some of those arrests from being prosecuted. We don’t have good data on the “pre-arrest” process so it’s impossible to tell how that has impacted juvenile arrest, prosecution and recidivism rates.

The oversight documents also go into great detail about MPD’s budget:

• MPD technically came in “under budget” by ~$3M relative to their revised budget of $644.6M for FY 2023.

• However that is much higher than the $526.1M that was originally budgeted for FY 2023. The difference is mostly due to a $101.1M “reprogramming” to cover “Funds for CBA and Pay-parity increases (includes retro pay)” i.e. the increases from the collective bargaining agreement (CBA).

• This means that actual MPD spending increased from $565.9M in FY 2022 to $641.6M in FY 2023.

  • Part of the increase was due to overtime. Overtime hours increased from 1.05M hours to 1.15M hours (+9.5%) in FY 2023. MPD’s annual overtime utilization is the equivalent of ~551 full time officers.

Lastly the oversight documents are one of the few times where we get any visibility into MPD’s disciplinary process. “Adverse actions” are how MPD imposes consequences for more serious infractions: “Department-level discipline that includes any fine, suspension, reduction in rank or pay, or termination.” Notably, MPD adjusted its disciplinary policies in November 2022 and in 2023 saw a 35% increase in adverse actions. This suggests that the increase is due to the change in policy, not necessarily a 35% increase in misconduct. While still rare, there has been an increase in the number of adverse actions where the underlying “conduct constitutes a crime”:

The overwhelming majority of adverse actions result in some kind of suspension.

While many of these adverse actions are for things like accidents, some of the conduct is quite serious:

• "Sexual Assault" resulted in a 30 day suspension (not termination)

• "Participated in January 6 riot" resulted in a 10 day suspension

• 4 separate DUIs resulted in 30 day suspensions

• “Untruthful Statement / Unauthorized Outside Employment” resulted in a 15 day suspension

• “Utilized a marked MPD vehicle while working unauthorized Outside Employment” resulted in a 18 days suspension

The Office of Police Complaints (OPC) also reported out that they received a record-high number of complaints (883) in FY 2023. Those 883 complaints translated into 384 new investigations. 77% of cases were dismissed either because OPC found they lacked merit or the complainant did not cooperate:

On a more concerning note the OPC did refer 19 matters “to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for possible criminal prosecution” which seems to align with this Washington City Paper story. There were also 246 unique officers with 2 or more complaints in FY 2023 and 75 officers with 3 or more complaints.

Discipline is a tough subject but it is absolutely necessary for any police department. Upholding standards goes hand-in-hand with positive reinforcement; supporting, recognizing and appreciating the officers who do a great job. It seems that in 2023 MPD was able to both improve operationally while at the same time increasing internal enforcement; which is an encouraging sign. MPD still has many challenges, to include the dysfunction in the “downstream elements in the criminal justice ecosystem,” but there are signs that things are improving.