Monthly Update: Crime rose 4% in April
Theft, Robbery & Burglary increased while Homicides fell slightly
Looking back at April we can see that overall crime in DC rose by 4% over March. Here are the more notable changes and comparison to previous benchmarks:
Property crime, which was 84% of reported crimes, rose by 3.8% since March
Violent crime rose by 7%, driven mostly by robberies and assault with a dangerous weapon
Violent crimes with a gun actually fell 2% but violent crimes without a gun rose by 22%. This actually broke a long-term trend towards a larger share of DC’s violent crime being committed with guns.
By ward, the largest increases in crime were in wards 2, 6 and 3 with decreases in wards 4 and 8
Homicide fell again for the second month a row but remains higher than last year and the pre-COVID baseline
2023’s 15% YTD increase in homicides is overwhelmingly due to an 81% increase in Ward 8. On net, homicide is down in the other 7 wards YTD.
Crime rose by 24% across the 11 Business Improvement Districts (BIDs), mostly negating last month’s 26% decrease
Since April’s crime rate was very similar to March, the comparisons to last year and pre-COVID did not change much.
Crime YTD remains above last year’s trend both overall and for most crimes
Overall crime rates, most property crimes and the most common violent crimes (robbery and assault with a dangerous weapon) are lower than pre-COVID (2015-2019) but homicide, violent gun crimes and motor vehicle theft are significantly higher
To start with a methodology note, I am using the “START_DATE” field (i.e. when the crime happened) in the data from DC Crime Cards when assigning crime to a specific month. I’ve noticed that the defaults in DC Crime Cards and MPD’s YTD data comparisons seem to use the “REPORT_DAT” field (when the crime was reported) so these figures won’t match exactly. With that caveat, here is the crime table:
At the ward level, the largest increases in property crime were in wards 2 and 6 while the largest increases in violent crime were in wards 2 and 5. Note that ward 2’s large increase was from a pretty small base value so it was still one of the relatively less-violent wards. Ward 4 saw a large drop in crime and ward 8 had a moderate decrease in crime:
Homicide fell again in April but remains above last year and is especially concentrated in ward 8. Hopefully efforts to help bring down the murder rate will rightfully prioritize this ward. For example, Police District 7D (which covers the vast majority of ward 8) has had 31% of DC’s homicides so far in 2023 but has only 307 of MPD’s 3,362 sworn officers (~9% of the total) according to the most recent MPD staffing report.
Crime in the 11 Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) unfortunately rebounded in April with a 24% increase across all but 2 of the BIDs. This mostly negated the 26% decrease that the BIDs had seen in March:
As I said last month (and will likely continue to repeat) these month-over-month changes largely do not reflect larger policy debates about crime. There have been no significant changes in law, policing, prevention or the economy that obviously map to the ~4% increase in crime in April. However, there is a lot going on in the policy space so here is a very quick roundup:
Chief Contee will be retiring from MPD and taking a position at the FBI. Mayor Bowser has announced a national search for a replacement chief.
Chief Contee also announced a new MPD strategy focused on “officers taking more foot patrols, checking in on shopkeepers and apartment buildings, and assisting in traffic enforcement.” Contee explicitly addressed the “cops just sit in their cars” criticism that both conservatives and liberals have levied at MPD: “This is about officers getting out of their vehicles and engaging with the community by being problem solvers”
The Committee on the Judiciary and Public Safety moved forward its draft budget in response to Mayor Bowser’s proposal (my analysis here). This will likely set up a debate over School Resource Officers (SROs) on the DC Council as part of the Fiscal Year 2024 budget process.
MPD attrition continued to outpace new recruitment; with MPD shrinking by 16 officers in the April staffing report.
Related to this issue, CM Nadeau proposed a bill last week that aims to recruit more people into MPD’s Cadet program by increasing their pay and raising the maximum age for applicants
CM Allen introduced 2 acts (one emergency, one temporary) and a resolution that includes changes to the Office of Police Complaints, riot gear, chemical irritants and the Official Code:
Lastly I want to thank everyone who shared their ideas for cities to include in a future post comparing DC’s crime situation. This is something that a reader requested and I’m working my way through other cities’ much worse crime databases (seriously, I am very thankful for DC Crime Cards!) but plan to have that comparison (with a million caveats) be the next post. I really appreciate the feedback and engagement so please continue to write, note, tweet and share this blog.